Dear subscribers,
This version of Uncharted: Distilled breakdown of bitcoin’s market structure during last week’s bear market rally. All in the context of a shaky market driven by recession and inflation fears.
Let’s dig in!
Summary
Uncharted #19 starts by analyzing the run to $21k where bitcoin failed to break through the resistance level. The price action is being compressed between $19-$21k following the low volume recorded in June as the economy begins to show the first innings of a downturn.
Bitcoin was rejected at the $21k resistance level, however decisive price action shifted support upward to $19k.
Long-term and short-term holder supply in loss and profit suggested a reviving accumulation and saving behavior.
The exchange balance showed an unprecedented flow of bitcoin out of exchanges, reinforcing investors’ reluctance to sell.
June recorded lower trading volume as investors are back-and-forth between recession and inflation fears.
Bitcoin’s intraday volatility suggested that investors and the price action are susceptible to incoming data and the Fed’s reaction.
Peaking retail sales hinted at an economic slowdown as consumer confidence dampened.
On the other hand, the most recent ISM PMI prints suggested a robust economy able to withstand a subsequent rate hike.
If bitcoin decouples further from US markets, we likely see strengthening price action, considering the energetic positioning denoted by Swissblock’s Altcoin Cycle Signal and the subsiding risk.
All eyes turn to the Fed and incoming data.
Interesting read. I think it's still early for a bottom. To many uncertainties.